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Speaker: Prof. dr. F.P. (Frank) Pijpers (Complexity for Official Statistics).

Event details of General Mathematics Colloquium
Date 24 November 2021
Time 16:00 -16:45
Organised by Prof. dr. F.P. (Frank) Pijpers , Krystal Guo , Jeroen Zuiddam , Eni Musta
A picture of Frank Pijpers.


Networks, contagion spreading & reproduction numbers


When modelling the spread over a population of a signal, regardless of whether this is a contagious disease over people or innovations over enterprises, it is important to consider the networked behaviour of that population, and the resulting faster saturation of the propagation process. I will use some toy models to demonstrate how existing open data already constrains the space of viable models. 
In the second part of my talk I will describe that there are limitations in the use of data in terms of determining the effective reproduction number for (for instance) covid-19, which arise because of a lack of unicity inherent in the problem. This becomes clear once it is formulated as an inverse problem. I will show a non-parametric method for solving this inverse problem, as well as the limitations of that method.